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美联储“大鹰派”再发声：通胀短期内难回落北美贸易战成新逆风！_我的网站

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一 | Moscow's warnings to western countries about the dangers of uncontrollably pumping Ukraine with weapons appear to be starting to come true, with some US-supplied arms already surfacing on dark net markets and in international smuggling rings, Sputnik Arabic's investigation has shown.,Following a search across markets on the dark net – a separate part of the world-wide-web accessible, for example, through Tor browser – Sputnik managed to find an online shop dubbed "Weapons Ukraine" on the THIEF marketplace. True to its name, it’s readily selling weapons.,Express Delivery of 200 Rifles,"Weapons Ukraine" claims to be based in Kiev, has its name in Russian, and boasts about having conducted 32 successful deals confirmed by a guarantor – a middleman provided by the dark website to assure that a client gets their wares and the seller their money. The shop's owner offers M4S assault rifles courtesy of US arms suppliers for $2,400, well above the Pentagon’s price tag of between $600 and $1,200.,© SputnikScreenshot of "weapons Ukraine" shop on the THEIF dark web marketplaceScreenshot of "weapons Ukraine" shop on the THEIF dark web marketplace© Sputnik,Unlike the Pentagon, "Weapons Ukraine" is ready to sell several hundred of these rifles without bureaucratic complications, such as export licenses, to nearby anyone. In this case, the online shop agreed to sell to Houthi fighters from Yemen hiding behind the username "3ladin_houthi" – a fake identity assumed by the Sputnik Arabic journalist. Upon contacting the trader, whom the journalist addressed in Arabic converted through an online translator into English, the arms dealer asked to switch to Wickr messenger for further communications.,There, the trader confirmed that they were ready to deliver the weapons to Yemen by hiding them in oil barrels. Moreover, the dealer was ready to throw in some extra rifle ammo and frag grenades. The transportation itself would take only ten days, the seller assured.,© SputnikScreenshot of correspondence with "weapons Ukraine" Screenshot of correspondence with "weapons Ukraine" © Sputnik,"Weapons are transported in barrels of motor oil. One barrel holds 10 m4s and 2,000 rounds of ammunition, 20 grenades. Transportation takes 10 days by sea. You basically get barrels of engine oil without raising suspicion," the trader wrote.,The barrels are shipped on rarely-inspected vessels carrying humanitarian assistance. However, the seller refused to sell as many as 100 barrels of weapons so as not to arise more suspicion. “Weapons Ukraine” and "3ladin_houthi" agreed to ship 20 barrels containing 200 rifles and 400 grenades, with a value of $400,000 for the goods.,Crypto – the Dark Web’s King,Most dark web marketplaces trade illegal goods use cryptocurrencies, since they are difficult or impossible to trace. THIEF is no exception. As "Weapons Ukraine" explained to “3ladin_houthi”, the transaction consists of several steps.,First, the final terms of the deal are discussed and solidified in the presence of a middleman provided by the marketplace. Then, the buyer deposits crypto coins, in this case Monero, to its account on the platform, while the seller ships the goods.,Russia's Special Operation in UkraineEuropol Fears Weapons Sent to Ukraine Will End Up on European Black Market29 May, 13:25 GMT,Upon receiving the shipment, the buyer confirms its integrity and quantity and transfers the deposit to the middleman. The latter then sends the money to the seller, withholding 2% for their services. “3ladin_houthi”’s deal would have brought the middleman $8,000 in exchange for guaranteeing that the seller gets the money and that the buyer is not robbed of their share.,'Allies' in Poland and Portugal,The full details of the shipment become available only once the deal is agreed upon and the deposit is transferred to the middleman. The buyer gets a tracking number that allows them to know what ship their guns are loaded on to, when and from which port it leaves, and when it arrives to the destination.,Before inking the deal, the seller was only ready to provide general details of the shipment.,"At this point, I don't know you and you don't have a deposit. Maybe you are an Interpol agent. I told you in general terms how things work," the trader said.,"Weapons Ukraine", however, slipped that the weapons will be loaded onto a ship by their "allies in Poland". The arms dealer also provided a Russian-written map with a hand-drawn estimate of the ship’s route. According to the map, the transit will depart from a port in Portugal, go around the African continent and arrive in Yemen. The shop's owner did not elaborate on how the guns are going to make it from Ukraine to Poland and then onto Portugal.,© SputnikScreenshot of correspondence with "weapons Ukraine" Screenshot of correspondence with "weapons Ukraine" © Sputnik,The rest of the details of the shipment remain a mystery, as the next step in the deal - the marketplace's verification of the buyer's account - would blow the ruse.,Still, considering the fact that "Weapons Ukraine" has 32 successful sales of unspecified quantities of weapons, it is safe to assume they had developed a working route for deliveries. Based on the 20-barrel limit, the online shop might have sold as many as 6,400 rifles and 12,800 grenades worldwide. All they need now is more arms to sell – meaning more weapons deliveries from NATO countries.。　　明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）周日表示，美国国债收益率上升并不构成担忧，也不太可能影响货币政策决定。不过，美国通胀短期内难以回落至目标水平，而关税和贸易冲突是“罪魁祸首”之一。

二 | 　　卡什卡利在接受最新采访时说道：“种种迹象表明，美国国债市场运作正常，交易正常进行，市场流动性充足，因此我们可以将联邦基金利率作为降低通胀的主要政策工具。”　　上周，各期限的美国国债收益率均有所上升，基准10年期国债收益率收于4.73%左右。30年期国债收益率则维持在2007年以来的最高水平附近。　　卡什卡利指出，虽然目前的国债收益率相对于近期历史水平而言较高，但上世纪90年代的收益率要高得多。　　通胀持续　　美联储决策者将于9月举行下次会议。在7月的会议上，他们连续第五次维持利率不变。卡什卡利是三位反对“按兵不动”的官员之一，他倾向于加息25个基点，原因是担心通胀持续存在。

三 | 　　他在最新采访中说：“我们需要更多数据，但我不想预先判断下次会议的结果。不过，我现在并不认为通胀会在短期内回落到目标水平。”　　与此同时，卡什卡利还警告称，如果美国和加拿大这两个历史上的盟友之间最近几天紧张的贸易局势持续下去，那么与加拿大的关税战可能会加剧美国的通货膨胀。　　“贸易方面反复拉锯的时间越长，就像伊朗冲突反复拉锯的时间越长一样，其影响和通货膨胀最终就会被延长和推迟。”他补充道。　　由于谈判代表未能就解决美加两国间贸易僵局达成协议，美国于周六（22日）开始对加拿大产品加征50%的关税。美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔周六表示，目前没有与加拿大方面进行新的谈判计划。

四 | 　　与此同时，加拿大总理马克·卡尼承诺将对美国征收新的报复性关税，具体细节将于本周公布，计划于9月8日实施。

五 | 预计关税将针对钢铁、乳制品、家电、农业设备、纸浆、纸张和电子产品。　　卡什卡利指出，加拿大是“美国的重要贸易伙伴”。2025年，两国商品和服务贸易额达到8800亿美元，加拿大成为美国第二大贸易伙伴，仅次于墨西哥。他还概述了美国当前的经济形势，指出过去五年高企的通货膨胀主要是由供应冲击造成的。　　“其中一个供应冲击就是贸易和关税冲突。” 他补充道。　　卡什卡利强调，除了与伊朗的战争等问题（他称这场战争是“通货膨胀的主要驱动因素”，因为能源对美国经济有着广泛的影响）之外，贸易动态也是“另一个需要密切关注的因素”。　　“因此，只要我们能够达到一种新的常态，即贸易动态所处的某种水平，一旦进入这种稳定状态，企业就可以进行调整，通胀的影响就可以逐渐消失。

六 | ” 他说。（文章来源：财联社）。

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电锯惊魂

美联储“大鹰派”再发声：通胀短期内难回落 北美贸易战成新逆风！_我的网站

美联储“大鹰派”再发声：通胀短期内难回落北美贸易战成新逆风！_我的网站